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For this reason, Germany has also earmarked funds to support use of its electrolyser equipment overseas, to make hydrogen for use at home. Prof Ad van Wijk of Delft University of Technology says that, while many of the nations planning to expand their hydrogen use would struggle to do so on their own soil, there will be more than enough renewable energy available worldwide. In comparison, if demand is lower, the cost of a hydrogen rollout based primarily on green sources comes at “negligible extra cost”.

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The expansion of green hydrogen has the potential to shift the existing balance of trade so that nations rich in solar and wind energy, such as Chile, Australia and Morocco, become major exporters. Hydrogen is currently a very localised industry, with 85% produced and used on site – in part, due to high transport costs. As most hydrogen is “grey”, it is cheapest in regions with low gas prices, such as the Middle East and North America. For decades, the fossil fuels – and oil, in particular – have played a critical role in international relations and driven many of the world’s major conflicts.

Moreover, most hydrogen in these studies is used for industry, transport or power, rather than buildings. This suggests it would not be cost optimal to use hydrogen to decarbonise most of the world’s building heat demand. As renewables supply more of the world’s power, hydrogen advocates see the gas as an essential component for “deep decarbonisation”, providing electricity when the sun and wind are insufficient. understanding forex quotes However, progress in this area is currently very limited and replacing fossil fuels would require a whole new infrastructure as existing cement kilns would not work with pure hydrogen. Baroutaji says that despite fuel cells’ promise and use in test flights they are still “only suitable for powering light and small aircraft”. Nevertheless, he says there is considerable industry interest in hydrogen technology.

Some have suggested that the high cost of installing overhead wires in some locations makes hydrogen a more economic option in certain cases. Instead, the report frames hydrogen primarily as a solution to low-speed passenger train lines in rural areas, or to deal with “off-wire” sections, such as tunnels and bridges, that are hard to electrify with overhead wires. Rail is already the most electrified mode of transport in the world, with three-quarters of passenger transport taking place on electric trains. One issue with hydrogen use in planes is the water vapour it produces when combusted, given water’s contribution to the greenhouse effect at high altitudes. For example, as the chart below shows, the IEA’s projections – represented by the blue bars – are generally more conservative than those of BNEF, shown in red. Hydrogen has been lauded by many newspaper editorials and world leaders as a fix to today’s problems, from driving a “green recovery” following the Covid-19 pandemic to reducing the UK’s reliance on China for electric vehicle batteries.

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In addition, heat from nuclear reactors could have applications in hydrogen production by producing steam for more efficient electrolysis or fossil gas-based steam methane reforming. In a report published in March 2020, BloombergNEF set out an even stronger case for hydrogen. It identified maximum technical potential for the gas to meet 30% of final global energy demand in 2050.

• Meanwhile, Flis points out that oil and gas majors have started pushing hydrogen as an alternative fuel.
• Low-carbon hydrogen could be critical to decarbonising all of these applications, but its success will depend on competition with gas using CCS and biomass, both of which could also be used to cut emissions from industry.
• The agency says it could compete with electrification of industrial heat, although electricity is already far more developed.
• Pilot projects are underway in Europe to integrate low-carbon hydrogen into steelmaking, but the question of when “green steel” will be competitive remains open.
• It is also an explosive and clean-burning gas that contains more energy per unit of weight than fossil fuels.

Even though hydrogen is expected to play a lesser role than electricity in reaching net-zero emissions, its production and use could still need to scale up dramatically from today. In more than two dozen interviews for this article, there was broad consensus that hydrogen will be needed to avoid dangerous climate change by reaching net-zero emissions. There is less agreement on how much hydrogen the world will need and which sectors it will be used in. Prime minister Boris Johnson’s “10-point plan” for a “green industrial revolution” mentioned spending of “up to £500m ($667m)” on hydrogen, including a target of 5GW low-carbon hydrogen production capacity over the next decade. Last year, the International Energy Agency produced a major report on the future of hydrogen, noting it was “currently enjoying unprecedented political and business momentum”. Instead, low efficiency may hold back hydrogen via higher costs and the need for a larger energy supply.

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The first hydrogen-powered internal combustion engine was constructed in 1807 and debate around the use of hydrogen from electrolysers to replace coal emerged as early as 1863. Notably, the UK pathways analysed for this article include up to half of final energy in 2050 being met by hydrogen, much higher than the share in EU and global studies. Each row shows the findings of a single report or organisation, with a range of hydrogen shares indicated for different scenarios, as appropriate, by the light blue bars. Central estimates and maximum potentials are shown as mid-blue and dark blue circles, respectively. While electrification plays the leading role in pathways identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , it cannot currently unlock some sectors, such as long-distance transport. This ambition has been bolstered by several European nations, including Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands, releasing hydrogen strategies of their own, some in the context of a “green recovery” from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Importantly, a scenario’s hydrogen use depends on several factors, including the assumptions of the modellers, the level of detail in their models and the ambition of the modelled pathways. Carbon Brief understands new advice from the Climate Change Committee , due on 9 December, will have scenarios with hydrogen’s share at less than one fifth to one third of the total. Prior to the event’s postponement due to Covid-19, the Japanese government intended to showcase its advances at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, using hydrogen to power the Olympic flame and a fleet of 100 buses serving the games.

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Unlike electricity, the energy stored in hydrogen is carried in relatively stable chemical bonds rather than a more ephemeral electrical charge. This means its energy is easier to store, transport and convert into other molecules for use as fuels or chemical feedstocks. It is also an explosive and clean-burning gas that contains more energy per unit of weight than fossil fuels.

This is evident in existing hydrogen strategies, which show that prospective hydrogen leaders only see a fraction of their supply being produced locally. Transmission and distribution of hydrogen gas via pipeline is cheaper for distances up to around 1,500km, the IEA says. In early 2020, a group of European gas infrastructure companies came forward with a plan to connect the continent with a “backbone” of pipelines. The cost of transporting hydrogen via pipelines increases rapidly with distance, whereas when using a ship the starting cost is much higher but remains relatively stable with increasing distances. To make the investment in electrolysers worthwhile, there needs to be relatively cheap electricity available fairly consistently. A report prepared for the UK government noted that while hydrogen is not a pollutant by itself it can act as an “indirect greenhouse gas” by speeding up the accumulation of methane and ozone in the lower atmosphere.

Carl Arntzen, chief executive of boiler manufacturer Worcester Bosch, tells Carbon Brief that, in his view, hydrogen is the best solution for all of the 85% of UK homes currently heated with fossil gas. While oil use is likely to decline in line with climate action, tightening regulations on sulphur content in fuels mean there is still likely to be sizable demand for hydrogen in this sector. The agency says it could compete with electrification of industrial heat, although electricity is already far more developed. One study found that 78% of European industry’s energy demand is already electrifiable using established technologies. Some steel is already recycled from scrap using furnaces powered by electricity, which could potentially be decarbonised.

In China, where such an economy of scale has already been achieved for alkaline electrolysers, production costs are already 80% lower than in Europe and North America, according to BNEF. The IEA is forthright about the uncertainty around this topic, noting that “the relative costs of producing hydrogen from different https://day-trading.info/ sources in different regions, and how they will compete in the future, are unclear”. He notes that while high carbon capture rates can be achieved, this makes the process more expensive. It also states that blue hydrogen is “not inherently carbon free”, given that CCS generally only cuts CO2 emissions by 80-90%.

The agency says that satisfying all of this demand using electricity would require 3,600 terawatt hours of dedicated production – “more than the total annual electricity generation of the EU”. Ben Gallagher, an analyst specialising in the hydrogen economy at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, tells Carbon Brief that, ultimately, the most important factor is that this technology simply “makes more economic sense…than ever before”. Meanwhile, Flis points out that oil and gas majors have started pushing hydrogen as an alternative fuel. “They started to realise that they will have to eventually change to something,” he says. This time, according to the IEA, oil prices “remained low through the second half of the decade, stifling support that could have moved these projects closer to the mainstream”.

The single sector with the largest demand is oil refining, where hydrogen is used to remove sulphur and other impurities. Thomas Blank of the Rocky Mountain Institute tells Carbon Brief that with many policymakers keen to protect steelmaking as a strategic industry, price is far from the only consideration. While direct electrification of steelmaking using a process called “electrowinning” could be an option in the future, it has so far only been demonstrated at a pilot scale. In the UK, CO2 emissions from trains have already been cut by 50% over the past decade as further lines have been electrified and as the electricity system has been decarbonised.

However, the rise of battery electric cars means they are widely viewed as the vehicles of a net-zero future. The UK’s Climate Change Committee concluded in 2018 that electric vehicles are “now well placed to deliver the bulk of decarbonisation for cars and vans”. The IEA has stressed the need for international shipping routes for hydrogen, stating that such trade “needs to start soon if it is to make an impact on the global energy system”. Van Wijk tells Carbon Brief that in Europe, at least, another key component will be expanding and retrofitting gas pipelines to transport hydrogen from Africa. Limited international trade is already underway, with Japan recently receiving the “world’s first” shipment of hydrogen from Brunei and Germany signing a deal with Morocco to make use of its “ideal” conditions for green hydrogen production. High electrolyser usage rates can help make the initial capital costs in hydrogen production worthwhile, although this has to be balanced against the cost of electricity as it is used.

Tackling heat emissions is generally recognised as challenging, particularly for less well insulated existing buildings, which the IEA says will still make up two-fifths of the global stock by 2050. Space heating and hot water supply for buildings is one of the most contested areas of potential hydrogen use and is often the subject of heated debate. While this is a promising idea it may not be practical, even assuming a significant rollout of renewables in the coming years. The NIC notes that “it will be challenging to absorb all curtailed renewable generation at low cost due to the volatility of its production”. However, it could grow even further if these chemicals become established as either ways of transporting hydrogen over long distances, or as alternative fuels in their own right.

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Other nations, including Australia and New Zealand, have released plans to mobilise their abundant renewable resources and become major exporters of green hydrogen to parts of Asia and Europe. And the technology needed to make and use hydrogen has the potential to benefit from the policy and cost reduction experience that has seen renewables become cheap. This means hydrogen could help reinforce and connect the largely separate energy systems that are used today for heat, power, industry and transportation, an idea known as “sector coupling”.

The cost of transportation can be a significant factor, particularly if the hydrogen is imported from overseas, as well as the cost of distributing the hydrogen within a nation. There are also the profits taken by companies, which are added onto the final price. While the cost of producing hydrogen is an important component, it is not the only factor contributing to the final price paid by consumers. Finally, there is also evidence that hydrogen released into the atmosphere from infrastructure leakages could have a direct impact on climate change. Gniewomir Flis of Agora Energiewende tells Carbon Brief that when considering blue hydrogen he is “very concerned” about these emissions.